What's the most common final margin in an NFL game?
A 3-point margin is the single most common final score gap, happening in 15.4% of games.
Check this week's spreads in Team Bets
The evidence
The 8 most common final-score margins
| Margin | Games | Share of all games |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | 219 | 15.4% |
| 7 | 111 | 7.8% |
| 6 | 96 | 6.8% |
| 2 | 73 | 5.1% |
| 4 | 72 | 5.1% |
| 1 | 69 | 4.9% |
| 10 | 65 | 4.6% |
| 14 | 61 | 4.3% |
How this was measured
Every completed game's final margin (absolute value, so a 3-point win and a 3-point loss are the same row), grouped and counted. 1420 games total.
Sample size: 1,420 games. Last verified 2026-09-27.
What this doesn't tell you
This is a distribution of outcomes, not a prediction for any one game — a 3-point margin is the most common single gap, but it's still under 16% of games. Most games end with some other margin.
Related questions
This is a place to look, not a bet to make — every figure here describes the past, not a specific upcoming game.