Is buying the half point on a football spread worth it?
Moving a favourite from -3.5 to -2.5 lifts its cover rate from 46.6% to 54.4% — a 7.8-point swing — because it buys off the single most common margin in football.
The evidence
Favourite cover rate across the 3-point hook
| Spread | Cover rate | Push rate | Comparable games |
|---|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 46.6% | 0% | 629 |
| -3 | 50.3% | 9.4% | 604 |
| -2.5 | 54.4% | 0% | 619 |
How this was measured
spread_outcome_profile at each of the three spreads (favourite lines within ±1 point of the stated number), 2021-2025. The size of the swing is specific to the 3-point number because 3 is by far the most common NFL margin — the same jump bought on a less common number (e.g. -7.5 to -6.5) is smaller.
Sample size: 1,852 games. Last verified 2026-09-27.
What this doesn't tell you
Books charge extra juice for buying off the hook precisely because it's worth this much — the fair price of the half point (in extra vig) should be weighed against this swing, not compared to a flat -110 on both sides.
Related questions
This is a place to look, not a bet to make — every figure here describes the past, not a specific upcoming game.