How often does an NFL spread push?
A spread pushes 9.4% of the time at exactly 3 and 4.8% at exactly 7 — but never at a half-point line like 3.5, where a push is mathematically impossible.
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The evidence
Push rate by spread
| Spread | Push rate | Comparable games |
|---|---|---|
| -1 | 1.1% | 177 |
| -2 | 3.7% | 547 |
| -3 | 9.4% | 604 |
| -3.5 | 0% | 629 |
| -4 | 2.5% | 477 |
| -6 | 4.2% | 289 |
| -6.5 | 0% | 347 |
| -7 | 4.8% | 293 |
| -7.5 | 0% | 255 |
| -10 | 4.5% | 111 |
How this was measured
spread_outcome_profile groups games by favourite spread (within ±1 point) across 2021-2025 and reports the share landing on the exact number. Half-point spreads structurally cannot push, since no NFL game ends in a half-point margin.
Sample size: 3,729 games. Last verified 2026-09-27.
What this doesn't tell you
This is why books post half-point ("hook") lines at all — a push refunds every bet, which the book would rather avoid on its most heavily bet numbers (3 and 7). The push rate at a whole number is exactly the reason the half-point version of that same line exists.
Related questions
This is a place to look, not a bet to make — every figure here describes the past, not a specific upcoming game.