How often is an NFL game decided by exactly 7 points?
A 7-point margin decides 7.8% of games — the 2nd-most common margin there is, behind 3.
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The evidence
Margin of 7 versus its closest neighbors
| Margin | Games | Share of all games |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | 219 | 15.4% |
| 6 | 96 | 6.8% |
| 7 | 111 | 7.8% |
| 10 | 65 | 4.6% |
How this was measured
Every completed game's absolute final margin, grouped and counted, across 1420 games.
Sample size: 1,420 games. Last verified 2026-09-27.
What this doesn't tell you
One score (a touchdown plus the extra point, minus a two-point-conversion-adjusted equivalent) naturally lands on 7 more than most other numbers — this is a fact about how football is scored as much as it is about how close games tend to be.
Related questions
This is a place to look, not a bet to make — every figure here describes the past, not a specific upcoming game.