What win rate do I need to break even betting spreads?
At the standard -110 price, you need to win 52.4% of your bets just to break even — anything less and the book's hold eats you alive.
See the win probability behind any spread in Team Bets
The evidence
Break-even win rate at common American odds
| Price | Break-even win rate |
|---|---|
| -130 | 56.5% |
| -120 | 54.5% |
| -115 | 53.5% |
| -110 | 52.4% |
| -105 | 51.2% |
| +100 | 50% |
| +110 | 47.6% |
| +120 | 45.5% |
How this was measured
Pure arithmetic on the posted price: break-even rate = |odds| / (|odds| + 100) for a negative price, or 100 / (odds + 100) for a positive one. No game data involved — this is the mathematical vig built into the price, the same for every book quoting that number.
Sample size: 0 games (none needed — this is arithmetic on the price, not a measured rate). Last verified 2026-09-27.
What this doesn't tell you
This is the break-even rate at a flat bet size with no other bets in play. It doesn't account for parlays, teasers, or reduced-juice promotions, which all change the number — and it says nothing about whether any specific pick is actually a good one.
Related questions
This is a place to look, not a bet to make — every figure here describes the past, not a specific upcoming game.