How much is home field advantage worth?
Home field advantage is worth about 2.45 points — a team that would be an even matchup on a neutral field wins roughly 57.7% of the time at home.
See the current home/away split in Team Bets
The evidence
Projected point margin converted to win probability (this app's normal-CDF model)
| Point margin | Win probability |
|---|---|
| -14 | 13.4% |
| -10 | 21.5% |
| -7 | 29% |
| -3 | 40.6% |
| 0 | 50% |
| +2.45 (home field alone) | 57.7% |
| +3 | 59.4% |
| +7 | 71% |
| +10 | 78.5% |
| +14 | 86.6% |
How this was measured
Regression estimate of home/away scoring, controlling for team strength, across 720 games. Win probabilities in the table are computed live from that margin via a normal-distribution model of NFL scoring margins (standard deviation 12.65 points), the same conversion this app uses everywhere a margin needs to become a probability.
Sample size: 720 games. Last verified 2026-09-27.
What this doesn't tell you
This is a league-wide average across every team and situation. Individual teams, specific stadiums, travel distance, and short weeks can all shift it — this number describes the league, not your specific matchup.
Related questions
This is a place to look, not a bet to make — every figure here describes the past, not a specific upcoming game.