How often do NFL games finish within one score?
Around 60% of games with a short spread finish within one score, and it's still 42% even when the favourite is laying 10.
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The evidence
Share of games finishing within one score (≤8 points), by favourite's spread
| Spread | One-score finish | Comparable games |
|---|---|---|
| -1 | 62% | 177 |
| -3 | 60% | 604 |
| -7 | 48% | 293 |
| -10 | 42% | 111 |
| -14 | 33% | 61 |
How this was measured
spread_outcome_profile groups games by how many points the favourite was laying (within ±1 point of the stated spread) across the 2021-2025 seasons, then reports what share finished with a final margin of 8 points or fewer.
Sample size: 1,246 games. Last verified 2026-09-27.
What this doesn't tell you
A one-score finish doesn't mean the underdog covered — it just means the game was close at the final whistle, including garbage-time scores that flatter the final margin.
Related questions
This is a place to look, not a bet to make — every figure here describes the past, not a specific upcoming game.