Does the sportsbook market price moneylines correctly?
Yes — actual win rates track the market's implied probability closely at every price point, off by no more than about 5% in any bucket across 2,848 team-games.
Compare moneylines in Team Bets
The evidence
Implied win probability (from the posted moneyline) versus actual win rate
| Implied probability | Actual win rate | Team-games |
|---|---|---|
| 10-20% | 14% | 121 |
| 20-30% | 23% | 326 |
| 30-40% | 35% | 404 |
| 40-50% | 42% | 499 |
| 50-60% | 53% | 430 |
| 60-70% | 64% | 469 |
| 70-80% | 70% | 362 |
| 80-90% | 82% | 177 |
| 90-100% | 92% | 53 |
How this was measured
Every team-game with a posted moneyline, 2021-2025 (each game contributes both a home and an away row). Implied probability computed from the American odds, bucketed in 10-point bands, then compared to how often that bucket's teams actually won.
Sample size: 2,848 team-games. Last verified 2026-09-27.
What this doesn't tell you
This tests calibration (does 70% actually win about 70% of the time), not profitability — the book's vig means you can't bet your way to even money off perfectly calibrated prices. It also says nothing about whether a SPECIFIC game's line is accurate, only that the market as a whole isn't systematically wrong.
Related questions
This is a place to look, not a bet to make — every figure here describes the past, not a specific upcoming game.