Are big NFL favourites a safe bet?
A 10-point favourite wins outright 84.7% of the time — but the game is still within one score 42.3% of the time, so "safe" and "comfortable" aren't the same thing.
Check this week's biggest favourites in Team Bets
Provisional — based on 111 games, under this app's 200-sample threshold for a settled read. Treat this as an early signal, not a final answer.
The evidence
10-point favourites, 2021-2025
| Measure | Rate |
|---|---|
| Wins outright | 84.7% |
| Covers -10 | 50% |
| Game within one score | 42.3% |
| Blowout (17+ points) | 36.9% |
How this was measured
Every game where the favourite's closing spread was within 1 point of -10, 111 games across 2021-2025.
Sample size: 111 games. Last verified 2026-09-27.
What this doesn't tell you
Winning is not the same question as winning comfortably, or covering. A big favourite that lets up in the fourth quarter with the game already decided still shows up here as a "close" one-score finish.
Related questions
This is a place to look, not a bet to make — every figure here describes the past, not a specific upcoming game.