Does anything change in NFL weeks 17-18?
Essentially nothing at the league level — teams score 22.03 points per game in weeks 17-18, within 0.37 points of their own season average, contrary to the idea that resting starters visibly changes scoring league-wide.
See a team's season-long scoring profile in Team Profiles
The evidence
Points scored per game versus each team's own season average, by stretch of the season
| Stretch | Avg points/game | Own season average | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-3 | 22.23 | 22.43 | -0.2 |
| Weeks 4-16 | 22.66 | 22.43 | +0.23 |
| Weeks 17-18 | 22.03 | 22.41 | -0.37 |
How this was measured
Every team-game 2021-2025 with at least 10 games that season, comparing points scored in weeks 17-18 to that same team's own full-season average. 2,718 team-games total.
Sample size: 2,718 team-games. Last verified 2026-09-27.
What this doesn't tell you
This is a league-wide average and specifically blends teams that had something to play for with teams that had already clinched or been eliminated and rested starters — those two groups likely move in opposite directions and could be cancelling each other out in this figure. It doesn't isolate the specific teams most likely to rest players.
Related questions
This is a place to look, not a bet to make — every figure here describes the past, not a specific upcoming game.