Do NFL teams start the season slow?
No — teams score 22.23 points per game in weeks 1-3, within 0.2 points of their own full-season average (22.43). There's no real September dip.
See a team's season-long scoring profile in Team Profiles
The evidence
Points scored per game versus each team's own season average, by stretch of the season
| Stretch | Avg points/game | Own season average | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-3 | 22.23 | 22.43 | -0.2 |
| Weeks 4-16 | 22.66 | 22.43 | +0.23 |
| Weeks 17-18 | 22.03 | 22.41 | -0.37 |
How this was measured
Every team-game 2021-2025 with at least 10 games that season, comparing points scored in each stretch of the season to that same team's own full-season average. 2,718 team-games total.
Sample size: 2,718 team-games. Last verified 2026-09-27.
What this doesn't tell you
This measures scoring only, league-wide — an individual team with a genuinely slow-developing offense, a new scheme, or a major injury in September can absolutely look different from this average. This is a statement about the league as a whole, not a prediction for any one team.
Related questions
This is a place to look, not a bet to make — every figure here describes the past, not a specific upcoming game.