How often does an NFL player beat his own season average?
Less than half the time — 37% of player-games clear that player's own career average, because these distributions are right-skewed: a handful of big games pull the mean above the typical game.
Look up a player's own average in Player Props
The evidence
Share of player-games exceeding that player's own career average, by stat
| Stat group | What it covers |
|---|---|
| Volume/yardage/TDs | receiving/rushing/passing yards, receptions, targets, carries, completions, attempts, TDs, interceptions, completion % |
How this was measured
For every player with at least 8 career games in a given stat, compared each individual game's value to that player's own career average across the same stat. Pooled across every qualifying player and every stat in the list above, 139,484 player-games total.
Sample size: 139,484 player-games. Last verified 2026-09-27.
What this doesn't tell you
This is the base rate everything else on this app is read against — a player "clearing his average" only 37% of the time by default means a Watchlist pick has to beat THIS number to be doing real work, not just describing normal variance. It says nothing about any specific player or matchup.
Related questions
This is a place to look, not a bet to make — every figure here describes the past, not a specific upcoming game.